Issue - meetings

This report provides a baseline assessment of the Children in Care (CiC) position at the end of Quarter 3 (December 2025) and sets out the mitigations already in train and further invest-to-save proposals.

CiC numbers have continued to rise to 628 (84.5 per 10,000), an increase of 13% (73 children) since Q4 2024/25. Forecast CiC expenditure for 2025/26 is £53.27m, c.11% (£5.4m) above budget, driven by rising demand and the increasing complexity and cost of provision.

The service has strengthened demand management and cost control through Early Help, the Reunification Team, employment of permanent Alternatively Qualified Practitioners, “It Takes a Family” (ITAF) and Mockingbird models, as well as the Creative Care Panel. To accelerate impact from 2026/27, an Outline Business Case proposes a Children in Care Transformation Programme (phase 1 investment £500k) comprising a full-system review and a CiC Strategy, with anticipated part-year savings of c.£1m in 2026/27.

The Committee received a report on the Children in Care baseline position, including demand, spend, forecast overspend and proposed mitigation measures.

The Committee discussed the report.

RESOLVED that the report be noted and that a further update on the Children in Care position be brought back to the Committee at a future meeting.

The remainder of the meeting was held in public.

Exempt minutes –

Children in Care – Baseline of Need, Spend and Overspend with Mitigation Proposals

The  Director of Children’s Social Care presented a report, a copy of which had been circulated to each Member and a copy of which appears as Appendix 'B' to these Minutes in the Minute Book.

This report provided a baseline assessment of the Children in Care (CiC) position at the end of Quarter 3 (December 2025) and set out the mitigations already in train, alongside further invest?to?save proposals.

CiC numbers had continued to rise to 628 (84.5 per 10,000), representing an increase of 13% (73 children) since Quarter 4 2024/25. Forecast CiC expenditure for 2025/26 was £53.27m, approximately 11% (£5.4m) above budget, driven by rising demand and the increasing complexity and cost of provision.

The service had strengthened demand management and cost control through Early Help, the Reunification Team, the employment of permanent Alternatively Qualified Practitioners, the “It Takes a Family” (ITAF) and Mockingbird models, and the Creative Care Panel. To accelerate impact from 2026/27, an Outline Business Case proposed a Children in Care Transformation Programme, including phase 1 investment of £500k, comprising a full?system review and a CiC Strategy, with anticipated part?year savings of approximately £1m in 2026/27.

The Committee discussed the report, including:

• In response to a query raised regarding the baseline position, the Committee was advised that current demand levels reflected a combination of demographic pressures and increasing complexity of need, and that demand was expected to remain challenging in the short to medium term.
• The Committee was advised that forecasting assumptions would continue to be reviewed and refined as mitigation activity progressed and new data became available.
• In response to a query raised regarding the drivers of the overspend, the Committee was advised that placement availability, placement cost and length of stay were key contributing factors.
• In response to a query raised regarding whether proposed mitigation measures were sufficient to address the projected overspend, the Committee was advised that some measures were expected to have a longer-term impact, while others were already delivering benefits, with governance arrangements in place to monitor delivery and adjust plans where required.
• In response to a query raised regarding financial oversight and sustainability, the Committee was advised that strengthened governance and monitoring arrangements were in place to track demand, spend and outcomes, alongside the development of invest?to?save proposals.
• The Committee was advised that a further update would be brought back once the impact of mitigation and transformation activity could be meaningfully assessed.